- Galaxy cut CLARITY Act chances of passage to 50 percent as Senate delay continued on schedule.
- Senate leadership has yet to set up a debate and time is running out.
- Competing legislation and the August break have limited the time frame for the CLARITY Act.
The passage of the CLARITY Act through Congress in 2026 will now take a more difficult road following the revision of the odds of the act being signed into law by Galaxy Digital, citing procedural hurdles and increased competition for space in the Senate calendar.
The new assessment is based on scheduling problems and not any changes in the bill, Galaxy’s analysts point out. Despite the continued support of the proposal and despite its continued status as one of the key priorities of returning legislators in July, there are still certain legislative hurdles that remain unsolved.
As the Senate approaches the August recess period and many other bills of high priority are also being considered on the Senate floor, the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law has become 50/50.
Prospects for Passage of CLARITY Act Look Bleak Amid Tense Senate Calendar
Alex Thorn, the firm-wide research director at Galaxy, said that the chances of passing the CLARITY Act in 2026 have now been reduced to 50% from the previous 60%.The latest revision follows another adjustment made in early June, when Galaxy reduced its forecast from 75%.
Source: Alex Thorn
According to Thorn, the downgrade is tied to the legislative timetable instead of the contents of the bill. He said negotiations have not produced a unified version between the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, while Senate leadership has not scheduled a motion to proceed or set a floor debate.
Thorn stated that the remaining procedural requirements leave limited time before lawmakers begin their scheduled August recess.
The bill must first secure a merged Banking-Agriculture text before advancing through a motion to proceed, Senate debate, amendments, and eventual House consideration of any version approved by the Senate.
He added that if Senate Majority Leader John Thune does not announce floor consideration by early July, the legislative timeline could shift into September.
According to Thorn, such a delay would place the measure closer to the political dynamics surrounding the upcoming midterm elections, making scheduling more difficult.
Despite lowering the forecast, Thorn said a 50% probability still represents a meaningful chance for legislation of this scope and complexity.
Challenges Created by Competing Legislative Priorities
Galaxy further highlighted that growing competition for Senate floor time was one more issue complicating the timelines of the CLARITY Act.
Thorn pointed to President Donald Trump’s recent decision to withhold his signature from a bipartisan housing bill unless Congress first passes the SAVE Act, legislation that would introduce proof-of-citizenship requirements for federal elections.
According to Thorn, that development added another major issue to an already crowded Senate agenda.
Beyond the SAVE Act, the Senate continues to face additional legislative priorities before the August recess.
Thorn identified unfinished work related to Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and consideration of the National Défense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2027, both of which are expected to consume significant floor time.
The Senate entered a state work period that runs through July 10 and is scheduled to begin its traditional five-week August recess on Aug. 8 before returning to Washington on Sept. 14.
Galaxy said those scheduling constraints leave a narrowing window for advancing the crypto market structure legislation before lawmakers leave for the recess.
Lawmakers Continue Negotiations on Market Structure Bill
The CLARITY Act remains under negotiation as senators continue working on legislation intended to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.
The proposal would divide oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Under the framework being discussed, the CFTC would receive primary authority over most crypto assets, while responsibilities would be shared between the two agencies depending on the characteristics of individual digital assets.
A Senate aide previously said the legislation remains a top priority for both Democratic and Republican lawmakers when the Senate returns in July, indicating that negotiations continue despite the tighter legislative schedule.
The bill is also scheduled for a House hearing on July 17 as lawmakers continue reviewing the proposal.
Industry Support and Regulatory Concerns Continue
The CLARITY Act has continued to attract support from parts of the digital asset industry while also drawing criticism from other organizations.
Earlier this month, more than 200 crypto companies and organizations signed a letter organized by Stand With Crypto urging the Senate to approve the legislation.
At the same time, several law enforcement organizations and a coalition of Catholic groups contacted White House officials to express concerns about the proposal.
According to those organizations, the legislation could create oversight gaps that may affect efforts to monitor illicit activity involving digital assets.
The banking industry and several Democratic lawmakers have also raised objections during the legislative process, arguing that provisions related to stablecoins could allow crypto firms to offer yield-bearing products without being subject to requirements applied to traditional financial institutions.
