Michael Saylor sees the next decade as a race for the Bitcoin that is still being mined.
The Strategy executive chairman recently told Binance that the period through 2035 could resemble a “gold rush,” as Bitcoin’s supply gets closer to its 21 million-coin limit.
More than 20 million BTC have already been mined, according to onchain data. Less than 1 million remain, and those coins will not enter the market quickly. Bitcoin’s issuance rate falls every time the network reaches another halving.
The process is built into Bitcoin’s rules. Every 210,000 blocks, which takes roughly four years, the reward paid to miners is cut in half.
Bitcoin Has Less New Supply Coming
Miners currently receive 3.125 BTC for producing a block. With a block arriving about every 10 minutes, that puts average new issuance at roughly 450 BTC a day.
That figure was twice as high before the April 2024 halving. The event reduced the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
The next cut is expected in 2028. If the current schedule holds, miners will receive 1.5625 BTC per block after that halving.
Each later cycle will bring another reduction.
This is what Saylor is referring to when he compares the period to a gold rush. The point is the amount of new Bitcoin available from mining, rather than a forecast for where BTC will trade.
Saylor’s 2035 Estimate
Saylor has used 2035 as a reference point for when roughly 99% of Bitcoin’s total supply will have been mined. He has also referred to 2034 in previous comments.
There is no specific Bitcoin rule that makes 2035 the year this happens. It is an estimate based on the network’s existing issuance schedule.
The last portion of Bitcoin’s supply will take much longer to produce. Mining is expected to continue until around 2140, although the block reward will become increasingly small along the way.
For miners, that creates another change. As the subsidy falls, transaction fees are expected to account for a larger share of mining revenue.
A Smaller Supply Does Not Mean a Fixed Price
The amount of Bitcoin being mined is only one part of the market.
Demand can move in either direction while the issuance schedule keeps running as programmed. Companies may buy, investors may sell, and institutions can change their exposure without affecting the number of BTC produced by miners.
There is another wrinkle. Not every Bitcoin that has been mined is necessarily available to trade.
Some coins have remained untouched for years. Others may be inaccessible because their owners lost private keys. The exact amount of Bitcoin that has been permanently lost is not known.
So the 21 million figure tells only part of the story. How much Bitcoin people want to hold, sell or use will also matter.
Bitcoin’s Risks Remain
None of this removes the risks attached to Bitcoin.
The asset has gone through major declines before, sometimes followed by long periods of weak prices. As of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $83,539 with minimal price change in the past day. Holding BTC also comes with practical risks, including exchange failures, phishing attacks, lost keys and custody errors.
FTX and Mt. Gox are two examples of how problems at crypto platforms can affect customers. Traders using borrowed money face another risk because a sharp price move can trigger forced sales.
Regulation remains a moving part of the market as well. Governments continue to address areas such as taxation, custody, reporting and access to crypto markets.
Mining businesses have their own pressures. Electricity costs, local rules and changing market conditions can all affect whether mining remains profitable.
Strategy Moves $297M in Bitcoin
Saylor’s comments come as Strategy continues to add to its Bitcoin holdings.
The company bought another 1,665 BTC for about $142.7 million, taking its holdings to 847,666 BTC as of Sept. 27. Strategy also repurchased about $151.7 million of its STRC preferred stock.
Then came another large transaction.
About 3,568 BTC, worth roughly $297 million at the time, moved from addresses linked to Strategy over around nine hours on Sept. 29.
The transfers raised questions about whether the company had sold Bitcoin. Arkham later said the coins had moved within Fidelity’s custody system rather than being sold.
Arkham analyst Emmet Gallic said the transactions were consistent with activity involving Fidelity Custody. Customer deposits can move between addresses within the custody system, meaning the transfers themselves do not establish that Strategy sold the 3,568 BTC.
Saylor’s Bitcoin Thesis
The 2035 timeline is part of Saylor’s longer-term argument about Bitcoin.
His view is that the amount of newly mined BTC will become increasingly small while the existing supply remains capped at 21 million. Strategy has also built its corporate treasury around Bitcoin, giving the company substantial exposure to the asset.
That does not make the future price of Bitcoin predictable.
The supply schedule is known, but demand is not. Adoption, regulation, market conditions and actual use of Bitcoin can all change over time.
In the meantime, the network continues to follow the same issuance rules. More than 20 million BTC are already in existence, while the coins still to be mined will arrive at a much slower pace than they did in Bitcoin’s earlier years.
