ADA Price Analysis Tests Key Support Levels

ADA remains bearish at $0.1885 and risks dropping to $0.18 in case the $0.18584 support gets broken down.
Grayscale has withdrawn its application for the Cardano ETF, while ADA records six months since CME futures listing began.
ADA must climb back up to $0.19588 to validate its upside setup under strong selling pressure.

ADA price analysis reveals that Cardano is trading under bearish pressure in the four-hour timeframe since it declined from the $0.20 range and rejected at $0.21147. This is due to the withdrawal of Cardano trust ETF registration by Grayscale on August 7, stripping away the dedicated spot ETF for the United States.

The four-hour chart indicates that ADA was trading near the $0.188 support level since the recent fall. In addition, the 20 and 50 EMAs were above the current price.

Next technical support was at the price of $0.18584, according to the analysis. After this came the EMA of 200 periods of $0.17962. In addition, there was an additional downside target at $0.18.

Source: Trading View

RSI value of 34.97 indicated that there was selling pressure on the asset; however, the number was greater than 30.

Key technical levels

Support: $0.188, $0.18584 and $0.17962
Lower level: $0.18
Resistance: $0.19231 and $0.19588
Higher resistance: $0.20259, $0.20625 and $0.21227

A break below $0.18584 could expose ADA to the $0.17962 area. A move below $0.188 could put $0.18 into focus. On the upside, reclaiming $0.19231 would place ADA back above its 50-period EMA, while a recovery above $0.19588 would move the price above the Bollinger Band midline.

Grayscale Withdraws Cardano ETF Filing

Grayscale withdrew its registration for the Cardano Trust ETF on August 7, telling the SEC that it did not intend to proceed with the planned distribution. The withdrawal was voluntary and occurred alongside registrations involving Hedera and Polkadot within approximately three minutes of one another that afternoon.

The Cardano Trust registration never became effective. The filing also stated that no securities had been issued or sold under the registration. Therefore, there was no operating fund holding ADA and no fund assets to unwind following the withdrawal.

Other Grayscale altcoin registrations involving Bittensor, Aave, BNB, NEAR and Zcash remained active and preliminary in the supplied information. Grayscale had not stated why it withdrew the Cardano registration.

The withdrawal left no dedicated U.S. spot ETF application identified in the supplied material that was designed to hold ADA directly. A spot structure would have allowed new shares to be created against direct ADA purchases.

ADA Reaches Six-Month CME Futures Threshold

Two days after the withdrawal, ADA reached a separate regulatory milestone. CME-regulated ADA futures had traded for six months as of August 9.

The supplied information identifies six months of regulated futures trading as one route recognized under the SEC’s generic listing framework for spot-commodity exchange-traded product eligibility.

The timing means the six-month futures milestone was reached shortly after Grayscale withdrew its registration. The supplied information does not state that the withdrawal was related to ADA’s regulatory status.

ADA has declined more than 41% year-to-date and approximately 70% since Grayscale’s original ETF filing. The asset’s market capitalization was approximately $7.1 billion based on the supplied figures.

Existing Cardano ETF Uses Futures

Volatility Shares operates a Cardano ETF based primarily on CME ADA futures. Its prospectus states that the fund does not invest directly in ADA.

Combined net assets across the standard and leveraged versions were approximately $1.26 million as of July. That compares with ADA’s market capitalization of approximately $7.1 billion.

The ETF exposure identified in the supplied information therefore remains futures-based rather than through a dedicated spot product that directly holds ADA.