- Bitcoin is at close to $62,000 with $1.9 billion in options expiry looming large.
- The positive effect on Bitcoin prices due to a weak U.S. employment report increased the cut-off rate.
- ETF inflows have been calm as Bitcoin tried to test $62,000 again.
Bitcoin Price Prediction remained in focus after Bitcoin recovered toward the $61,500–$62,000 range ahead of a fresh round of cryptocurrency options expirations and following weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data.
About 31,000 Bitcoin options contracts, having a notional amount of approximately $1.9 billion, will expire by July 3, and an additional 134,000 Ethereum options contracts, worth around $228 million, will also expire.
Source: Trading View
The current market data shows that the coming expiry of the week is much smaller in comparison to the previous expiry at the end of the quarter.
Limited Market Pressure Expected from Bitcoin Options Expiry
This derivatives expiry comprises about 31,000 Bitcoin options contracts, whose nominal value is estimated at $1.9 billion. Relative to last week’s big quarterly expiry, this week’s contract expiry is much smaller, and market participants are expecting a negligible impact on spot prices.
Market data revealed that Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio stood at 0.7, implying that there were more calls than puts open on Bitcoin. The maximum pain figure for Bitcoin was found at around $61,000, making it closer to the current market price of Bitcoin before expiry.
Open interest was seen to be concentrated at higher strikes on Deribit. The largest concentration was recorded at the $80,000 strike with approximately $1.1 billion in open interest, while the $60,000 strike continued to hold nearly $900 million in open positions.
According to Coinglass data, total Bitcoin options open interest across exchanges declined to approximately $26 billion following last week’s large quarterly expiration, marking its lowest level in about 16 months.
Key observations
- Around 31,000 Bitcoin contracts worth approximately $1.9 billion expire on July 3.
- Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio stands at 0.7 with maximum pain near $61,000.
- Total Bitcoin options open interest has declined to roughly $26 billion.
Ethereum Contracts Also Reach Expiration
Ethereum derivatives are also scheduled for expiration during the same session.
Approximately 134,000 Ethereum options contracts with a notional value of about $228 million are set to expire. Market data placed Ethereum’s maximum pain level at $1,650, while the put-to-call ratio measured 1.3.
In all exchanges, the total Ethereum options open interest fell to about $3.6 billion, marking the lowest level since January 2023.
Combined, the Bitcoin and Ethereum expirations account for an estimated total notional value of about $1.8 billion in crypto options reaching maturity during the trading session.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Improves Following U.S. Labor Report
Bitcoin recovered toward the $61,500–$62,000 region after the latest U.S. employment report showed weaker hiring than expected.
June Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 57,000 jobs, while previous monthly figures were revised lower. While the jobless rate was down to 4.2%, the slowdown in employment gains and weakening momentum in the labor market were the key points of discussion for market participants.
The jobs report also added to expectations that the Fed may have a more accommodative stance to monetary policy towards later this year amid the worsening economic situation.
Meanwhile, the crypto market cap rose by about $70 billion for the week as losses from the previous month slowed down. Bitcoin touched an intraday high of $62,000 and traded around $61,500 in Asia on Friday.
Ethereum also recovered above the $1,700 level after recording a daily gain of approximately 6%.
Market developments
- Weaker U.S. payroll growth supported expectations for easier monetary policy.
- Bitcoin traded between $61,500 and $62,000 following the employment report.
- Ethereum reclaimed the $1,700 level during the same period.
Institutional Activity Remains Under Scrutiny
Institutional activity remained under scrutiny together with macroeconomic events.
The recent Bitcoin exchange-traded funds witnessed more even capital movements compared to previous heavy outflows. The reduction in the selling activity alleviated one of the sources of pressure seen before.
On the other hand, corporations holding long-term Bitcoin positions held on to their holdings, meaning that the strategic holdings were not affected by recent market volatility.
Another thing being watched is how improved macroeconomic fundamentals will affect ETF inflows in upcoming sessions.
Technical Levels Define the Next Bitcoin Move
The latest four-hour chart showed Bitcoin rebounding from the $58,000 to $59,000 support zone before moving above its short-term moving averages.
Price is currently testing resistance between $61,500 and $62,000, where the 100-period moving average is positioned.
A sustained move above this resistance area would expose the next upside levels between $63,500 and $64,000.
If Bitcoin fails to maintain momentum above current resistance, support levels remain near $60,000, followed by the $58,500 area.
Derivatives analytics firm Greeks Live stated that short-dated downside protection continues to account for most of the premium reflected in Bitcoin options pricing. Moreover, the company indicated that the options positioning is focused mainly on short-term risk management instead of reevaluating the long-term prospects.
| Bitcoin Technical Levels | Price Level |
| Current resistance | $61,500–$62,000 |
| Next upside target | $63,500 |
| Secondary upside target | $64,000 |
| Immediate support | $60,000 |
| Key support | $58,500 |
| Max pain | $61,000 |
| Largest options strike OI | $80,000 ($1.1B) |
Bitcoin Price Prediction Focused on Resistance and Macroeconomic Indicators
Bitcoin Price Prediction is still focused on the interplay of macro Bitcoin remains below its major longer-term moving averages despite rebounding from the $58,000–$59,000 support area.
Current trading continues to test resistance near $61,500–$62,000 following weaker U.S. employment data and ahead of the latest cryptocurrency options expiration.
Market participants are also watching ETF flows, Treasury yield expectations, upcoming U.S. inflation data, and additional Federal Reserve commentary as factors that could influence future price direction while Bitcoin remains within its broader corrective structure.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why is the July 3 Bitcoin options expiry important
An estimated 31,000 Bitcoin options contracts valued at about $1.9 billion will expire on July 3rd. Though it is quite substantial, the expiry is much smaller compared to the last quarter’s expiry, lowering expectations for significant volatility in the spot market.
What is the max pain price of Bitcoin for this option’s expiry?
Max pain is expected to be at around $61,000. It represents the price point where most of the options contracts will expire worthless.
What are some of the important price levels for Bitcoin that traders should watch out for?
Resistance is currently at $61,500 – $62,000. If Bitcoin moves above this range, the next levels are $63,500 and $64,000.
