- The price of Cardano is trading around $0.14 with indicators pointing at oversold conditions that point to the possibility of a bounce soon.
- SecondFi recovery is going according to plan, and the outflows from the ADA exchange hit the highest mark in June.
- Bearish derivatives continue to exist; however, purchases by whales and the $0.14 support level still deserve attention.
The Cardano price is still centered on whether ADA will be able to continue holding the support levels around $0.14 mark amid a lengthy downtrend that has pushed the coin into the oversold levels.
As of press time, ADA was trading around the $0.145 region on Monday, having managed to record an upward movement on a daily basis, thanks to improved sentiment in the markets after the signing of a truce between the US and Iran.
Cardano Price Forecast Eyes Important Technicals
ADA is still trading below the Super trend (10,3) indicator on the daily timeframe and has stayed in negative territory since early February.
Source: Trading View
Currently, the Super trend indicator is near $0.1715, forming the first important resistance level above the current price.
On June 16th, ADA gave up the important support zone ranging from $0.20 to $0.245. After this breakdown, ADA has been trading in the range of roughly $0.14-$0.18 without returning to any earlier levels of support.
Momentum indicators still send mixed messages. The RSI stands at 29, suggesting that ADA is currently oversold.
Another momentum indicator, the RSI Divergence indicator, has identified a bullish divergence being formed close to current prices in a pattern similar to those seen prior to bounces in December and March.
The MACD indicator has recently turned slightly positive. However, ADA continues to trade under all major trend lines, including the 50-day Exponential Moving Average of $0.1904, the 100-day EMA of $0.2248, and the 200-day EMA of $0.3006.
Source: Trading View
If the selling pressure rises, support is seen at $0.1451, followed by $0.1417, and then $0.1400. Breaking these levels will cause the structural support level of $0.1382 to become vulnerable.
Resistance starts from $0.1726 and $0.1737, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Additional resistance stands near the 50-day EMA at $0.1904, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.1957.
Above those levels, traders continue monitoring resistance around $0.2134, the 100-day EMA at $0.2248, the supply zone between $0.2312 and $0.2565, and the longer-term resistance near $0.2991 alongside the 200-day EMA.
SecondFi Recovery Gains Traction and Outflows from Exchanges Raise Concerns
The Cardano price forecast is also based on recent events happening within the ecosystem after the SecondFi hack.
SecondFi stated that its recovery process remains on schedule within the previously announced two-week timeline. According to the project, engineers are evaluating multiple technical approaches simultaneously before completing the recovery system.
The platform said it expects to release a wallet verification tool early next week, allowing users to determine whether their wallets were affected during the incident. That step will be followed by a secure withdrawal process for impacted users.
SecondFi also repeated that it will never ask users to share private keys, seed phrases, or transfer assets while warning about fraudulent accounts impersonating the project after the exploit.
The attack affected approximately 374 wallet addresses between June 21 and June 23, draining roughly 16 million ADA, valued at about $2.4 million during the incident.
EMURGO Chief Executive Officer Phillip Pon said a forensic investigation identified what he described as a clear recovery solution.
According to Pon, development of the recovery system is expected to require one week, followed by an additional week of testing before distributions begin.
As part of its security measures, SecondFi transferred approximately 129 million ADA into third-party custody during the review period.
Blockchain data also showed continued movement of ADA away from centralized exchanges.
During the most recent week, approximately $11.22 million worth of ADA, estimated at roughly 70 million to 100 million tokens, left exchange wallets, marking the largest exchange supply reduction recorded during June.
Bearish Sentiment Prevails in Derivatives Market
Despite the accumulation seen in on-chain metrics that is taking place off-exchange, derivatives markets remain bearish.
CoinGlass data showed Cardano’s long-to-short ratio at 0.72 on Monday, the lowest reading recorded in more than one month. A ratio below one indicates that short positions continue to outnumber long positions.
Negative funding rates were still observed after falling into negative territory since Saturday. The negative 0.0055% on Monday suggested that short positions kept funding the longs in an environment where bears were likely to be dominant.
Source: Coinglass
The market overview from CryptoQuant showed a different picture. In the opinion of this company, Cardano’s spot market had large whale buy orders while the overall picture was relatively neutral.
Separately, two Cardano delegated representatives stepped down from governance responsibilities during June. Market observers described the development as a limited governance event given Cardano’s network of approximately 3,000 stake pool operators.
The broader market also received support after a senior U.S. official confirmed that the United States and Iran agreed to halt attacks, with both countries expected to hold talks in Qatar on Tuesday.
